U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened tougher economic measures against countries that support or trade with Iran, raising fresh concerns about the future of Iran’s international commerce.
Iran remains economically connected to a number of countries across Asia and the Middle East. China is by far its most important oil customer, while the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Iraq, Oman, Pakistan and India maintain varying levels of commercial ties with Tehran.
Any new U.S. sanctions or secondary sanctions could therefore have consequences well beyond Iran’s borders.
China: Iran’s Biggest Oil Customer
China is Iran’s most important trading partner in the energy sector and the biggest buyer of Iranian crude oil.
According to Kpler estimates cited by Reuters, China purchased an average of 1.38 million barrels per day of Iranian oil in 2025, with more than 80% of Iran’s shipped oil destined for China.
Much of this trade is handled through independent Chinese refiners and complex networks of intermediaries. Iranian crude has also been transported and sold through arrangements designed to make the origin of the oil harder to track.
Washington has already targeted Chinese entities involved in Iranian oil purchases. Additional U.S. pressure could put Chinese refiners, banks and shipping companies under greater scrutiny.
China, however, has argued that sanctions and economic pressure are not the solution and has called for diplomatic efforts to resolve disputes involving Iran.
United Arab Emirates: A Major Commercial Link
The United Arab Emirates has historically been one of Iran’s most important economic lifelines, particularly through Dubai.
According to World Trade Organization figures cited by Reuters, the UAE accounted for about 30% of Iran’s imports, worth approximately $21 billion, in 2024. It also represented around 13% of Iran’s exports.
Much of the commercial relationship involves re-exports through the UAE.
However, the relationship has recently come under renewed pressure. The UAE suspended financial and economic transactions with Iran this week, citing regional military escalation and security concerns.
Turkey: Energy and Manufactured Goods
Turkey and Iran have maintained significant economic ties despite longstanding U.S. sanctions on Tehran.
Turkey imports Iranian natural gas while exporting manufactured products to Iran. Bilateral trade has been estimated at approximately $5 billion to $6 billion annually, with Turkish exports accounting for around $3 billion.
Iran also remains an important source of natural gas for Turkey, supplying approximately 13% of Turkey’s gas imports.
Because Turkey imports most of its natural gas, any major disruption to its energy relationship with Iran could have economic and energy-security implications.
Iraq: More Than $10 Billion in Trade
Iraq is another major economic partner for Iran.
Official Iraqi trade figures put bilateral trade at more than $10 billion in 2025, largely driven by Iranian exports of food, consumer products and other goods.
Energy is especially important. Iraq pays Iran roughly $4 billion to $5 billion a year for natural gas, which is used to generate electricity.
This creates a difficult situation for Baghdad. New U.S. sanctions could make it harder for Iraq to pay Iran for energy while avoiding exposure to American financial restrictions.
Trade has already declined in 2026 amid regional conflict, border disruptions and higher transportation costs.
Oman: A Longstanding Diplomatic and Trade Partner
Oman has maintained close and generally cordial relations with Iran for decades.
Muscat has also frequently served as a diplomatic intermediary between Iran and Western countries, including the United States.
Trade between Oman and Iran reached approximately $1.5 billion in 2025, according to Omani statistics, while trade during the first four months of 2026 stood at about $345 million.
Oman’s diplomatic relationship with Tehran could become particularly important if tensions between Iran and the United States continue to escalate.
Pakistan: A Potentially Vulnerable Trade Relationship
Pakistan has significant economic and geographic links with Iran, particularly along their shared border.
The two countries have discussed expanding bilateral trade to $10 billion, while unofficial estimates put existing informal trade at around $4 billion.
Pakistan and Iran trade commodities including oil, wheat, rice, livestock and medicines.
Islamabad could face a difficult balancing act if Washington imposes additional penalties on countries doing business with Iran. Pakistan is already seeking to expand economic cooperation with Tehran while maintaining its broader international financial relationships.
India: Trade Has Fallen Sharply
India was once a much larger trading partner for Iran, but bilateral commerce declined significantly after the United States tightened sanctions on Tehran.
Two-way trade fell from approximately $17 billion in 2018-19 to $4.8 billion in 2019-20.
Trade declined further and stood at approximately $1.63 billion in India's 2025/26 fiscal year, according to Indian commerce ministry data.
Indian exports make up most of the current trade and include cereals, tea, coffee and spices.
New Delhi has previously argued that some exports serve humanitarian purposes and should not be affected by sanctions.
Armenia: Energy and Regional Connectivity
Iran is also an important economic partner for neighboring Armenia.
Iran accounted for approximately $768 million, or 3.6%, of Armenia’s total trade turnover in 2025.
Trade increased during the first half of 2026, reaching approximately $371.4 million.
Energy cooperation is particularly notable. Armenia and Iran operate a gas-for-electricity swap, in which Iran supplies natural gas to Armenia while Armenia provides electricity in return.
Iran also provides an important route for a portion of Armenia’s international trade.
Azerbaijan: Growing Bilateral Trade
Trade between Iran and Azerbaijan has also increased in 2026.
Azerbaijan’s trade turnover with Iran rose to approximately $312.6 million during the first six months of 2026, up from $299.1 million during the same period a year earlier.
Iran accounted for around 3.56% of Azerbaijan’s imports during the period.
Although the overall trade relationship is smaller than Iran’s relationships with China, Iraq or the UAE, the two neighboring countries have strategic economic and transportation interests.
Who Are Iran’s Most Important Trading Partners?
Iran’s trading relationships vary considerably depending on whether oil, energy, consumer goods or overall merchandise trade is considered.
| Country | Key Economic Link With Iran |
|---|---|
| China | Biggest buyer of Iranian oil |
| UAE | Major re-export and commercial hub |
| Iraq | Consumer goods, energy and natural gas |
| Turkey | Natural gas and manufactured goods |
| Oman | Trade, investment and diplomatic ties |
| Pakistan | Border trade, food, energy and medicines |
| India | Cereals, spices and other exports |
| Armenia | Gas-for-electricity and regional trade |
| Azerbaijan | Cross-border trade and regional commerce |
Why Trump’s Threat Matters
The significance of the U.S. threat is not limited to Iran itself.
Washington can potentially use secondary sanctions to pressure foreign companies, banks and governments that conduct certain transactions with sanctioned Iranian entities. That creates a difficult choice for countries that depend on Iranian energy, Iranian goods or access to Iranian markets.
China has the greatest exposure to Iranian oil. Iraq and Turkey have important energy relationships with Iran, while the UAE has historically played a major role as a commercial gateway.
Pakistan, Armenia and Azerbaijan have smaller trade volumes but face their own regional and economic considerations.
What Happens Next?
The impact of any new U.S. economic measures will depend on how broadly Washington defines countries and companies that are considered to be supporting Iran.
If enforcement expands significantly, China could become the most important test case, given its large purchases of Iranian crude. Iraq and Turkey could also face difficult choices because of their energy dependence on Iran.
For Iran, the challenge will be maintaining access to foreign markets and payment systems while relying increasingly on a smaller group of willing trading partners.
For its neighbors, the issue is more complicated: cutting economic ties with Iran may reduce exposure to U.S. sanctions, but it could also disrupt energy supplies, border commerce and domestic businesses.
Conclusion
Iran is not economically isolated despite years of U.S. sanctions. Its trade network remains concentrated around China, the UAE, Iraq, Turkey and other neighboring Asian and Middle Eastern countries.
Trump’s latest threat could test the willingness of those countries to continue doing business with Tehran. The outcome could have consequences not only for Iran’s economy, but also for regional energy markets, cross-border trade and the wider global oil market.
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